// Data Analysis · Feb 2026

SPOTIFY MUSIC TREND ANALYSIS

DateFebruary 2026
TypeAd Hoc Analysis
ClientRecord Label (Simulated)
Dataset114,000+ Spotify Tracks
The Brief

A mid-size record label needed to identify which music genres to prioritize for next quarter signings. No internal data was available to guide the decision — so we built the answer from scratch using 114K+ Spotify tracks from Kaggle.

The Challenge
  • How do we identify winning genres objectively?
  • Which genres are overvalued vs. underestimated?
  • What's the relationship between track characteristics and popularity?
  • Can we reduce risk by understanding current market trends?
My Approach

Phase 1: Hypothesis Formation. Defined 5 assumptions before touching the data — expected pop and hip-hop to dominate, shorter songs to win, high energy to equal popularity. Writing these out first prevents confirmation bias.

Phase 2: Data Preparation. Sourced 114K Spotify tracks, removed 16K zero-popularity tracks and 1 row with missing data. Result: 97,980 quality tracks across 114 genres.

Phase 3: Rigorous Testing. Tested each assumption against real data — correlations, distributions, segment comparisons. Documented what worked and what didn't.

Phase 4: Visualization. Created 3 simple, clear charts — not dashboards. Each tells one story in under 5 seconds. Ready for stakeholder presentation.

Phase 5: Strategy. Built a tier-based recommendation system with caveats, limitations, and outlined next steps for validation.

Key Findings
  • Electronic music outperforms expectations. Electro (57.9), house (57.2), and EDM (54.9) all beat hip-hop (53.1). Electronic and dance are underestimated in most label strategies.
  • Medium energy beats high energy. Medium energy tracks average 40.8 vs. 37.9 for high energy. Balance matters more than intensity.
  • Duration is a weak signal. Yes, 3-4 minutes is optimal (41.1 avg) — but the correlation is only −0.052. It's a constraint, not a guarantee. Quality beats timing.
  • Pop still wins. Pop-film (59.4), k-pop (59.2), and pop (58.2) top the charts — consistent across samples. Safe bet, but faces the most competition.
Recommended Allocation
  • 40% Tier 1 — Safe bets: Pop, k-pop, electro, house
  • 40% Tier 2 — Growth: EDM, indie, hip-hop, chill
  • 20% Tier 3 — Experimental: Soul, grunge, alt-rock
Limitations I Flagged

I deliberately didn't overstate the findings. What this analysis can't tell you: revenue impact (popularity is not profit), cost to sign artists, audience demographics, or whether these trends will persist. Caveats build trust. This is why the analysis includes next steps — validate with internal data before making major budget decisions.

What I Learned
  • Assumptions written before analysis prevent confirmation bias — it's more rigorous than "let's explore the data"
  • 97K clean records beats 114K messy ones every time
  • Showing that audio features DON'T matter is just as valuable as finding ones that do
  • Admitting limitations makes recommendations stronger, not weaker
  • Same data yields different insights depending on the business context
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